Business networking session

Hi all, I guess those of you who have been keeping track of my blog knows that I have a few business ideas in mind. And since quite a number of you people have expressed interest in this,I would like to organize a get together to do some brainstorming and work out the feasibility of the ideas.

The meeting will not solely be on my ideas only..if you have any..feel free to share!

Here are the details:

Date : 19th Apr ( Sunday )
Time: 1-4 Pm
Venue: 3 Shan Road, Phillip Investor hub (meet at reception area 1st, i will bring you people to the meeting room)
http://www.streetdirectory.com/asia_travel/travel/travel_id_29816/travel_site_40678/4/



Agenda

Business Ideas / possible ventures ( Click on the ideas to find out more! )

• Landlord agency
• Teaching financial knowledge
• Setting up a Nando's franchise
• Jackie Chan cafe concept ( rent out space to rest, rather than food)
• Trading team
  

And other suggested ideas...


If you are interested..drop me an email at ntuchartist@hotmail.com with the following details :

1. Name
2. Hp Number
3. Age
4. Occupation
5. Which business idea/ideas you are interested in
6. Any ideas you have in mine
7. Bringing any friends? If so..how many?

I am looking forward to meeting you people because we will have an fruitful discussion! Even if nothing concrete comes out of it..we will all definitely learn a little more about setting up businesses in Singapore.

Cheers!

Kuala Lumpur

Hi Fellow readers!

Sorry for the lack of updates for the past few days. Was away in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for holiday. It was a fun/cheap holiday. Saw a few business opportunities over there that could be potentially brought into Singapore.

For example like

• Nando's . Its a place where it sells chicken, something like Kenny rogers. However i feel that the chicken there taste better..and its a little cheaper then Kenny rogers. 1/2 chicken with 2 sides for 20RM. Think franchise.
  
• Jackie Chan's cafe concept. Though i think there is a Jackie Chan cafe here, it is slightly different in concept. In Malaysia, the cafe is more of a place for people to sit and relax ( there have sofa chairs) after a busy day of shopping. Its more of renting a place than selling food/drinks. Think of it also as a place for bored and tired husbands and boyfriends to rest while waiting for their partners to finish shopping. =p

Shall update more soon..

How much wall street's executives are piad!

Click on picture to enlarge

Students should take student loan!

To all Uni students to be out there, even if you can afford your education in the universities, do take the student loan! Its interest free!

Here is how it works..assuming you can fully afford the fees.

Here is also some basic assumption :

• Annual school fees of around $6360 ( starting from engineering students going into NTU in Aug09 after tution grant and stuff )
• Bank Loan of up to max 90%
• Fixed Deposit Rates of 1% ( Its really low now i know..)
  

So in this case, you should take the interest free bank loan of

90% X $6360 = $5724 / year.

Asuming you put the 4 years for fees as a lump sum FD. You will get back

(5724 x 4 ) x (1.01)^4 = $23825.67

Which essentially earns you $23825.67 - ( $5724 x ) = $929.67 after 4 years.

* I simplified the 'true earning' by not taking into consideration that,
If you had not taken the loan and put what ever ' education $$' you have into an FD, only taking out when its time to pay the school fees.

But, anyway ..$929.67 is not bad rite?

Relative drop of STI and STI ETFs

*Source from bloomberg

This table consolidates the % drop in price of the present STI components as relative to the past 2 economic crisis.

As you can see..in general most of the stocks price have not reach their historical % drop in price. The only two have the historical biggest drop is SembCorp Marine Ltd and Cosco Corp Singapore Ltd which are shipping companies.

This is to give you a rough guide of how much you MIGHT want to wait before you start buying certain sectors. It is true that historical records does not mean it will happen again in the future, but it still serves as a rough guide.


If you are worried about picking the wrong industry, you can invest in the STI ETF. Which is basically a fund that tracks the STI index..which also happens to contain most of the blue chips in Singapore.
However they are 2 kinds of STI ETI. One is the DBS STI ETF 100, the other is the 'normal' STI ETF. There are some pros and cons to each of them. And I suggest you read them up before investing in them. Some factors to consider is the lots size, managment fee ( yup, you have to pay the managers who have to manage this ETF!) etc.
Here is a link to some comparison of the 2 ETFs : http://www.moneytalk.sg/2009/02/dbs-issuing-sti-etf.html

STI drops- The Joseph Cycle

STI dropped by 61.47 points today!
Just remember, a drop of 70% from the peak is around 1164.
So by right there is still room for the index to drop if history is to repeat itself.

Only problem now that I see is..are we going into the cycle of long term recession? Meaning that for the next few years, the economy will not be growing as fast as what has happened over the past decade., and in fact might contract at a slow pace.

I got this idea after reading a book called 'The Joseph Cycle' which I borrowed from the Bedok library. This book was published in 2004. But it did predict the stock market to collapse in 2008. Which is indeed true! ( More info on the book can be found here )



The Joseph Cycle refers to the cyclic nature of the world's economy. Each peak to trough is expected to last 7 years. Hence a complete cycle will be 14years. Going by this, 2001-2008 ( 7 years) is the bull run, and 2008-2014 is suppose to be the bear run. As of now, the author Simon Sim Chin Cheong has been right so far.

He substantiates his point by plotting out the index fluctuation over the years according to 'The Joseph Cycle' and major economic events that accompanied it. It may be coincidental, but it has indeed happened MANY times. However he also says that within this 7 years, there will be peaks and troughs. ( Medium term trading/investing strategy)

If we were to believe him, it would mean that any investment done now, is not to be held for the LONG LONG term of more than 5 years., but for the medium term of around 1-2 years, or rather till when the market rises too fast. This is because the expected returns for the next 7 years might be negative.

I am starting to take note of this cycle theory because I have not experienced a long period of bear market. To me, every time the market drops, I am expecting it to rebound in a few months. This book has opened my mind, and has shown me that it is possible for the market to generate a negative return over a long period of say 7 years, just because you happen to enter to the wrong part of the cycle.

Invest with care! We might really be in the bear part of the Joseph Cycle.

Technical Analysis - STI at support now!

Looking at the above chart. We are presently at around 1594, from the peak of 3876. That is a drop of around 60%!!

From my old posts, i think a drop of around 70% from the peak is the highest ever..


From the above. Its been trading sideways, and we are now at the support of around 1600, which is established in the end of Nov 08. Personally i think buying at any time below this 1600 mark will greatly reduce your risks. And..for all you know, a rebound might be coming..