Sunday, January 25, 2009
Happy Chinese new year!
Hi to all, Happy Chinese new year!
Welcome to the year of the Ox! ( Which is also my year =) )
Anyway, I got gut feeling that the economy might not actually in the second half of the year as predicted by analyst and including myself. Why? because there are TOOOO many people predicting that it is going to recover around the second half of the year. ( Just read the straits times today,and you will realize this already )
The reason why I predicted the recovery will be around May 09 is due to technical analysis ( before any brokerage reports). I did my analysis based on past trends. I.e how long the economy usually take to recover from a recession. By predicting in May 09, I am actually taking the probability of the quickest recovery.
Therefore it will most likely, in my opinion recover either very soon, or early next year ( basically not in the second half of the year). The probability of a quick recover is actually very low, because all the 'help' from the various government has really yet to show. Therefore a high possibility of recovery would be next year. ( at least for the stock market, though i think the property market will be bad)
Therefore, I feel that the timing to buy stocks should START from June. Though we are not exactly at the bottom, but we should be closer to it than buying from now.
Last of all, have a good CNY! Enjoy all the food and the hong baos! =)