Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Happy New Year!

Happy new year to all!


One thing that I learned this year is , never be scared to try. And usually it turns out fine. =)

If you have something that you really want to do, just do it. Instead of regretting not doing it 50 years down the road.


For the new year, I plan to execute the ideas I have in mind..mainly business ideas...


**As for one of the ideas,I would require the help of people who fit this description

  1. Have the technical expertise to make a website
  2. Business minded
  3. Dedicated ( as I intend to make project really big, if possible)
So if you fit the description, feel free to contact me at my email. I shall explain to you more about this business idea.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Business/MLM/network marketing


Met up with a friend yesterday to discuss about business stuff. Essentially an MLM / network marketing model.

I personally have been to many MLM talks. And frankly, the first MLM talk that I went to spurred my interest in fiance.

The thing I like about MLM is the education behind the system. They always educate the 'downlines' about financial planning, encourage them to read widely on financial stuff, plan their financials early and to have passive income .Hence the need to work in MLMs to create this passive income. Such companies include Amway, Sunshine empire ( scam company) etc.

However, most of the time they do not teach their downlines how to do business. The system of how your earnings is generated is important. However I believe how to go about doing this business is more important. Recruiting people to be you down line is one way, however in my opinion, for such a business to succeed, the products that they are selling have to be good. Or at least comparative to those presently on the market. I.e. the ability to sell the products is very important. Without sales, there will be no commission, and hence no income.

Therefore, every time I think of a business plan, I will always feel that the point where the money is transacted is crucial. You can have a wonderful business plan, but if there is no one to buy your products/services, it is a lousy business plan. Great care and effort has to be made on this part of the business plan.

We also talked about many other stuff that are related to investment and finance. And I suddenly realized that by setting up this blog, I myself have learned a lot. Though this blog is only around for few months, I have learned much due to the need to read widely to do my posts.

Finally, I hope that everyone who comes to this blog learn a little a day. Remember, every little bit counts! =)

Sunday, December 28, 2008

What to invest in 2009?


Personally after looking at so many reports and their respective analysis. I feel that buying soft commodities might still be the best investment for next year. Some possible soft commodities include Soya bean, rice..etc.

These are some reason why i think so :
  • China/India's population is still growing, hence there will be more demand for this.
  • Supply of these soft commodities will be reduced as farmers will not be able to get loans from banks to buy fertilizers to increase their yield.
  • With more demand and less supply, price can only go up.
  • AND!..personally I feel that soft commodities is not as widely covered in the news as other stuff like oil/stocks/properties. Hence there is room for the price to run up. ( Because the best stuff to buy is not when the price has stared to go up, but rather before the price starts to go up)

Next, if you are interested, oil seems to be a good buy too. Downside risk is low also, as the price now is really low. However if the economy does not recover, the demand for the oil will still remain low and hence you will not get as much returns. But if you could also make a short term lost, if the economy gets worst.


Following, stocks seem to be quite a good buy. However practise dollar cost averaging over the next year. I personally will start buying in slowly after march, and on dips. Buy using TA to try to catch the uptrend, but if I fail to get the uptrend as I actually intend to keep these stocks for long term.

Finally property. In Singapore, it might not be a good time yet. Approximately 44% of homes bought last year will TOP in 2009. If people who bought homes last year, and are not able to pay, most probably they will have to sell these homes at a lost.


*updated the other blog of mine at http://thepowertotrade.blogspot.com/

Friday, December 26, 2008

List of stocks

Here is another list of companies with ratios.

If I were to select good companies to buy here is what I will look Add Imageout for
  • Big market capitalization
  • Price/Cash Value
  • Price/NAV
  • Div yield
However it is still important to look at the financial sheet before buying the share as these ratios could be good due to alteration of the financial reports.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

USD to weaken?


Just saw a report from DBS.

Looks like we are expecting the USD to SGD to weaken over the next year.

Here is how it is expected to happen :
  • US will be deleveraging itself ( which is happening at the moment)
  • People will sell off their assets and pay back the loans used to buy the assets
  • Since the loans were in USD, the people have to buy USD
  • This cause a shortage in USD in the forex market, causing the USD to appreciate/rise at the moment
  • However, since Japan is also deleveraging itself, but at a slower rate, people will sell off their USD for Yen as the 'Yen carry trade**' was widely used in the past.
  • This in turn will provide the supply of USD in the currency market and cause the USD to depreciate/drop
  • On the other hand, as of Oct 2008, Singapore has shifted to a zero appreciate of its SGD
  • So with respect to USD and SGD, the USD is expected to weaken


**More info of the Yen carry trade at :http://ntuchartist.blogspot.com/2008/11/how-world-is-deleveraging-itself.html

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Cash Rich Companies

There is actually quite a few companies that are trading below their net cash per share.

SO in theory this could happen:
  • Own the company by buying all the stocks in the company for say $1
  • Sell off all the assets and get the cash
  • This amount ( the net cash) is higher than $1, so..say $2
  • You pocket the $1
However this does not happen, because the big boss in the company will not sell all their shares to you.

Hence you can start looking into this companies for long term investment, as it does not make sense for the company to trade below its net cash for a long time. ( That is provided the company does not start losing all its money over the next few years.)

Here is the list of such companies

source : Bloomberg

source : shareinvestor.com

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Dividens

Was reading though some reports from different brokerage firms. Personally, even though I think it will be safer to buy starting from around May next year. We can start looking out for blue chips. Personally I have greater confidence in large market capitalization companies that are Singapore based.

I will also look out for stocks that have high dividen yields, as these stocks are in genereal more defensive in nature, their stock prices should drop as much, if the economy suddenly turns bad.

Here are some companies that I feel are worth considering with their respective projected dividends

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Indices

Indices of a stock market is a basket of stock that is chosen to represent the general stock market. They are usually chosen based on their market capitalization ( how big the company is), how important the company ( such as banks, telecoms etc.) and other factors.

Here is some values of the major world indices.


As you can see, Singapore has dropped one of the most in the world! So technical speaking, if you have faith in the Singapore economy , you should start investing in it. Because it will most likely bounce back, and gives the highest gain. This can be done by either buying straight into the stocks, or buying Singapore ETF ( exchange traded funds) which tracks the Singapore Index directly.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Auction

Once again there is another auction. The things up for auction includes rolex watches, other branded stuff and jewellery.

I personally think, those with a good eye should take a look at the auctions, and you might be able to find a good deal..and thus treat it as in investment.

Details as follows.

Date: 21st Dec 2008, Sunday

Venue: Hilton Hotel, Ballroom 2, Level 3, 581 Orchard Road Singapore

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Rolling $$ across credit cads 2

Remember my post previously on rolling $$ over credit cards. The problem with that was that we are usually not able to draw cash from one credit card and use it to pay for the other credit card.

However, it is actually possible to so called 'change' your debt from one company to another. And in the process reduce your monthly 2% interest to a one time admin fee ( from 1.5-6.5%) for 6-24months. I.e. you pay less for interest by shifting your debt around, then letting one particular credit card company charge you interest.

Here are the rates.
* Gotten from The Sunday Times on 14 Dec 2008

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Shorting

After the gathering on Sunday, I learned something really useful from one of the people who turned up. That is shorting in the market.

Shorting in very real in the market. And there are ways to find out whether there are genuine sellers in the market, or are they people who are simply shorting the market to make a quick buck.

Here are a few ways
  • Big sell down in price, but no substantial shareholders are doing the selling
  • Shorting facilities stop allowing people to short. For example CFDs stop the shorting of a particular stock
Anyone who has any more ideas? feel free to comment!

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

PhillipCapital Weekly market watch

This is a video by Phillip securities

Summary:
  • Investors worried that FED is printing too much money to do the bail outs, hence weaking the US currency
  • Vicious downward spiral. Cause by drop in property prices hence bank lending, followed by consumption, business and equity assets looping back to property prices again.
  • Market outlook for following months to be sideways with high chance of going down
  • Possible write down of USD 7.5 trillion from various sources, like the CDOs which are causing the banks to go bankrupt.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Successful networking/trading session!


Even though in the end we only had 4 people at the session. I would say its a successful one. It is really not the number of people at the session, but rather the content/scope/depth of the discussion.

Topics that we talk about include
  • Risks in trading
  • Simple style of trading
  • Ways the stock market is being manipulated
  • Technical analysis opinions
  • Commodities trend
  • Currency trends
  • Property trends
  • World economic trends
  • And many many more...
For me, its my first time having this sort of discussion. Though I have only met these people for the first time, we are still able to chat as though we know each other for quite some time already.
It is really surprising how easy it is for people of common interests to get engross in talking about something that there are so interested in, although they are from different age groups.

Once again I thank them for coming all the way down to NTU on a rainy Sunday afternoon.

Cheers!

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Meeting today!

Looking forward to today's meeting. Shall update the outcome of the meeting when its over.


Hopefully it will be a successful one!

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Sunday's meeting

I haven really come up with a good solid plan for Sunday's meeting. This is because I am not actually 'running' the meeting. But rather, I feel that I am facilitating the meeting of people with common interest.

Hope the topics that I choose will appeal to the people who are coming.

If any one has any good suggestions for stuff to discuss about besides the one I listed, feel free to comment. Thanks!

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Trading team/ networking session this sunday

Yup, this Sunday's meeting is confirm. We have a handful of people, but it is enough to get a small meeting going.

These are the things that we will be sharing/discussing
  • Trading Methods
  • Trading Platforms
  • Markets that we trade on and the pros and cons of each derivatives
  • General View of the market and the any sectors
  • Financial Views for the next few months
  • Do simple stock picking and discuss..
  • Set up means of keeping in touch..maybe through this blog? or mass email
  • And others...
So those of you who are coming...yup you might want to think about these stuffs, so that we can share it with each other on Sunday.

Cya!

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Jewellery Auction

Yup, there is another jewellery auction for any one who would like to buy cheap jewellery.
I was actually thinking, if you are really good at valuating jewellery..you might actually be able to go the auction to get a really good deal and sell the items that you win to pawn shops of cash converters? It seems possible.

Also, yesterday's newspaper talks about some auctions giving really good deals like brand new Nokia handphones at $70. Only downside is that it was stolen and was recovered by the police.

Anyway..here are the details for the auction



Venue: Hilton Hotel Singapore, Vista Room, Level 3, 581 Orchard Road, Singapore
Date : 14th Dec 2008 (Sunday)
Time: Viewing at 11am, auction at 1pm

More info at : http://firststateauctions.com/auction.asp

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

CPF 101: Knowing your CPF account ( Part 2 )

  • When you reach 55, a Minimum Sum will need to be set aside. The Minimum Sum is currently $106,000. This sum will gradually increase to $120,000 (in 2003 dollars, i.e it will be further adjusted according to inflation) by 2013. The excess can then be withdrawn in one lump sum.
  • The Minimum Sum may be used to purchase life annuity with participating insurance company, placed with a participating bank, or left into your Retirement Account (current interest rate: 4%). Monthly payments will be made from age 62 until the Minimum Sum is exhausted. With life annuity, your monthly payments will continue for life.
  • These are the very basics of your CPF account. More information, such as on housing schemes and the various types of investments you can make with your CPF savings, is available on the CPF website, www.cpf.gov.sg.
  • You may check your CPF statement and make transfers from your Ordinary Account to your Special Account simply by logging in on the CPF website. All you will need is a SingPass (apply online), which will be mailed to you within a week.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

CPF 101: Knowing your CPF Account

Today's post is contributed by a reader.


CPF contributions by yourself (20% of monthly wage) and your employee (14.5% of monthly wage)* are allocated into three accounts: 


Ordinary (66.7% of contribution*, interest rate: 2.5%) – for insurance, investment, buying a home and education 


Special (14.5% of contribution*, interest rate: 4%) – for investment in retirement-related products 


Medisave (18.8% of contribution*, interest rate: 4%) – for hospitalization expenses and approved medical insurance 


You may wish to transfer some of your money from the Ordinary account to the Special account in order to enjoy better interest rates.


*Rates are for those below the age of 50 who are employees in the private sector, Government non-pensionable employees, non-pensionable employees in statutory bodies and aided-schools, or Singapore Permanent Resident employees from their third year onwards. For others, see http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/Members/Gen-Info/Con-Rates/ContriRa.htm 


Voluntary contributions beyond your monthly CPF deductions are also possible. You may also choose to contribute to your parents’, spouse’s or siblings’ CPF accounts. These contributions may grant you tax relief. However, do note that any transfer is irreversible, and should thus only be done if you are sure that you will not need the money for buying a home or your children’s education etc.


Using the CPF caluculator (https://www.cpf.gov.sg/cpf_trans/ssl/financial_model/oa2sa/oa2sa_cal.asp?prof=&src=RNR), you can estimate how much more interest you can get by transferring money from your Ordinary Account to your Special Account.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Jewellery Auction

Once again there is another jewellery auction!

Details as follows

Venue: Sheraton Towers Hotel
Date : 7th Dec 2008 (Sunday)
Time: Viewing at 11am, auction at 1pm

Friday, December 5, 2008

Lehman Brothers Balance Sheet


Got this from an email that i received..


.Auditor's one line report on Lehman Brothers Balance sheet:

'There are two sides to a Balance Sheet:

- Left & the Right (Liabilities and Assets respectively)

on the Left side - there is nothing right

and on the Right side - there is nothing left


We must still keep our sense of humor in times like this! =)

Thursday, December 4, 2008

PhillipCapital Market Watch 1-5 Dec

This is a video by Phillip securities

Summary
  • Dec might rally because fund mangers will try means of boosting their portfolio, as they need to close their accounts.
  • The rally could go into Jan, because of the Singapore bail out plan which is expected to be good and Obama's possible economic policies that he might implement when he goes into office on 20th Jan.
  • The US having to fund for all the bail out has 3 ways to raise cash
  1. Increase tax, but this will not be good for consumer
  2. Issue Treasury bills. But in this current credit crisis and the amount of money that is needed, this might not be a good idea
  3. Printing more money. This will cause the currency to devalue. Hence if this happnes, its time to move out of USD based assets.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

REITs


Got this off 'The Edge' Magazine.

It seems like the yields of REITs now are crazily high..up to even 30%.

However we must consider how they calculate these value. It is done by taking the latest dividend in absolute dollars divided by the current share price.

So a stock that was $1 yielding a 5% dividend would be yielding 10% dividend if the stock price drops to 50cents.

Also, before plunging your money into these stocks, you must first do your research on these companies..as many factors will affect the future potential of these companies.

For example :
  • Where are the properties in the asset based? Their properties might not be all based in Singapore. Places like China will have a higher risk, as their government might have a sudden policy change, be it tax laws and such.
  • Their gearing. I.e how much debt to asset that they have. This is because in times like this when credit is difficult to get, they might get into trouble if they have too much debts.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Interest rates


I was observing the interest rates lately and find that Fixed deposit rates are dropping really quickly and normal saving rates are going up.

Banks like UOB has upped their basic savings rates and banks like HSBC has even made it more complicated by pegging it to the 1 month Singapore Interbank rates. Pegging it to the Interbank rates is a really smart idea. Not only do you make depositors happier, you reduce your risk greatly, as the banks will not ever have the chance of 'over giving' money to you, as the interbank rates are ever changing.



Also, while reading today's business times, I found out that currently, DBS bank has the lowest lending interest rates as compared to other banks. Its rate is 4.5% as compared to other banks which are around 5-6%. This shows that the Singapore government is really making an effort to make credit readily available to the Singapore companies at the risk of their own banks having profitability problems. This might/might not be a good thing. If these companies happen to default, DBS is going to have lots of write downs, and create a mini Singapore financial crisis. However if all goes well, DBS will come back really strong as compared to the other banks, when the overall market turns around. ( So if you really have confidence in Singapore companies in general, buying DBS shares will be a really really good investment for the long term)

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Phillipcapital Market

This is a video by Phillip securities giving their views on the market for the market

Summary:

1) US T-bills yield rates down, together with bond prices down implies that credit market is not good ( people would rather put their cash in safe places then invest other places like the stock market)

2) Recommends to buy commodities like Soy Beans ( because China is increasingly consuming more of these. And Corn ( as harvest is expected to be slowly this year, leading to a shortage of supply)

3) Recommends to buy Singapore and China government bonds, as these 2 countries have lots of reserves and their currency are not expected to drop over too much over the next few years.


Saturday, November 29, 2008

Great site for good deals in Singapore


This site contains lots of good deals for everyone out there, for example
  • Automotive
  • Books & Magazines
  • Computers
  • Dining!!
  • Electronics
  • Mobile Phones
  • Finacial and Insurance
  • And many many more!
Link : http://sg.offerstation.com/

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Mr Yeo's Trading system

This is a trading/investing system that is practiced by one of our readers, Mr Yeo.

I would like to thank Mr Yeo for his contribution to the blog.


Here is how he does it (as quoted by him) :

Basically this is my strategy. It is very similar to the stock trader, Jesse Livermore. Livermore shorted the market when it crashed in 1929.

1. Decide what stocks. I have a first line list and a standby list. Those in standby list are

Keppeland, Sembcorp Marine, Wilmar. Unless they drop to near $1 where risk is much

less, I may not consider buying. All the stocks belong to a different class. You cannot

expect a BMW to be in same class as a Toyota.

2. Then work out how much capital you are putting in.

3. Allocate how many lots for each of the stocks you wish to buy. After my first buy,I

won't buy more of a stock as it go down but buy less. I prefer to buy more when

I see my stock going up and I am in paper profit. But I cannot keep averaging up

and I have to stop at a certain price. So that chart may help me in that. But right now I

just estimate for each stock waht is the range I wish to average up.

4. With margin, I prefer to be in borrowing phase when I am in paper profit.This is

important. That's why I average up. Thus now that I nimble here and there, I buy bit by

bit.

Just don't put all your lots at one price. But first entry should be at a reasonable low risk level. There is no meaning buying a stock at $1 and then you still want to nimble all the way down to if it goes to 20c.


Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Just for laughs

Sometimes we stare right at danger without knowing...

*Taken from failblog.org

Citibank clear card


For all of you out there who own a Citibank clear card, the one with $500 limit, there is a way to waive the subscription fee.

Its very simple, just call the number at the back of the card and there is an option to waive the fee.

Contributed by one of our readers

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

How the world is deleveraging itself


I read an article recently which gives an addition perspective on the current financial crisis.

It started in the bull market in around 2003
  • Funds took in money from the common people
  • Using this money as collateral ( something like mortgage) , they went to the Japan banks to borrow even more money, up to 30 times for investment. This is becaue Japan has a very low interest rate for borrowing money.
  • Using this money they invested in many risky products
Now, the bear market
  • Started with HSBC writing off $10 billion of sub prime mortgage and the fall of companies like Lehman Bros etc.
  • This cause investors to lose confidence and pull out their cash from these funds.
  • Hence, because the funds have to pay back these people, they are selling their bad investments at a loss ( their losses is up to 30 times what they invested, because of the leveraging they used in the bull market)
  • And they are trying to minimize their leverage by trying to change their investment back to cash.
  • This process is then what we call deleveraging.
  • In the process, the funds have to return the $$ they borrowed from the Japan banks.
  • Hence they have to buy the Yen, in order to return Yen to the bank
  • This cause the Yen to strength significantly, which is what is happening at the moment.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Something interesting on how wall street works =)

Got this from an email sent by a friend =)



Subject: Wall Street

If you have difficulty understanding the current world financial situation,
the following should help...

Once upon a time in a village in India, a man announced to the villagers
that he would buy monkeys for $10.

The villagers seeing there were many monkeys around, went out to the
forest andstarted catching them.

The man bought thousands at $10, but, asthe supply started to diminish,
the villagers stopped their efforts. The man further announced that he
would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of thevillagers and they
started catching monkeys again.

Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back
to their farms. The offer rate increased to $25 and the supply of monkeys
became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone
catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50! However,
since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would
now act as buyer, on his behalf.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers: 'Look at all
these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell
them to you at $35 and when he returns from the city, you can sell
them back to him for $50.'

The villagers squeezed together their savings and bought all the
monkeys.

Then they never saw the man or his assistant again, only monkeys
everywhere! Welcome to WALL STREET.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Government Package


The Singapore Government has came up with plans to help keep people employed and even those who are unemployed. This is because unemployment is expected to go up to 4.5% next year compared to the 2.2% this year.

Package includes
  • 90% subsidy of training fees for blue collar workers and 80% subsidy of white collar workers ( This is to encourage companies to send their workers for training)
  • Paying $6/hr for workers that are sent for training and $6.80/hr for older workers with less than A lvl ( This means that companies do not have to sack workers, instead they can send them for training and 'pay' them using this fund. So, even though the workers get paid lesser, at least they still have a job and are learning useful skills in preparation of the market recovery)
  • Even for the jobless, they will pay $4/hr to low skilled people to attend training and up to $1000/mth to the higher skilled
All this is going to cost the government $600 million, and are being tapped from reserves that they have been saving up from the good years.

There is also the $2.3 billion loan and credit facilities to help out companies by making 'funds' more readily available to companies to help them tie over this time of financial uncertainly.


Finally, more 'goodies' are expected on Jan 22, when the government will announce the new budget.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Trading Team / Networking session

Organizing a networking session to discuss the possibility of forming a trading team and any other possible business opportunities.

Date : 14th Dec 2008 (Sun)
Time: 2pm
Venue : Nanyang Technological University , Nanyang House

Directions to the place :
1) Take 179 from Boon Lay Interchange, and alight at the 3rd stop after entering NTU.
( The red triangle right in the center of the map)

2) Cross the roads, heading towards the hill, and climb the stairs leading up it.

If you are interested, do drop me an email at ntuchartist@hotmail.com

please include the following in your email :
  1. Name
  2. Your handphone number
  3. Age
  4. Current job
  5. Risk profile
  6. Traded on the market before?
  7. Current portfolio of investments
  8. Any business ideas in mind
Thanks!

Always read the fine print !


Looking the advertisement by OCBC, the first impression is a really high interest rates of 2.68%p.a. But upon looking closer, it is only effective for 10 DAYS!! and for the rest of the 10months it is 1%. Making it effective 1.05 p.a.% which is really really low!

So as you can see, always read the fine print! Even though it is common sense thing to do, I believe many people still overlook the fine print, especially if it is really wordy.

Remember that your money is at stake, and the bank will always use the fine print against you!

Friday, November 21, 2008

PhillipCapital Market Watch 17-21 Nov

Sorry for the late video as I have been busy with school exams. Nonetheless this video gives good insights of stocks to look out for.

Summary
  • Swings are really big in the US market, 200billion lost in 15min
  • Fundamental Analysis does not work in such a market condition
  • However look out for US consumer stocks ( big names in terms of branding) as they are the 2nd cheapest in terms of valuation as compared to the financial sector. Almost an 80% drop in price, though their expected drop in EPS ( earnings per share) is expected to be only 20-25%

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Arbitrage using gold leasing


I got the idea from The Straits Times on Sat, 25 Oct 2008, pg A22

The idea is like this
  1. You borrow gold from a bank at 2.5% interest ( used to be 0.25% before the credit crisis, and that is really low!)
  2. Sell the gold for USD ( Gold is priced in the world market in terms of USD)
  3. Take the USD and lend it out at the current 1 month USD short-term LIBOR interest rate 3.24% (as of 24 oct 08)
  4. At the end of 1 month, you pocket the the extra interest of 3.24%-2.5%=0.74%
  5. Change the USD back to gold
  6. Return the gold back to the bank
At step 5, you may be worried that the gold gets more expensive. Hence you can actually buy a futures contract for gold.Meaning you actually fixed the price that you are going to change the USD back to gold before hand. Howeve you might need to pay a premium for this, but if the premium is lower that 0.74% as in the example, you will still make a profit. Risk free!


Things to take note for this to work!
  • Interest rate of borrowing gold from bank
  • Market price of selling gold for USD cash
  • Short term USD cash loan's interest rate
  • Future price of USD cash for gold
This as we can see, requires lots of conditions to occur in our favour in order to get the risk free profit. Also, lots of time need to be spent to monitor all the daily changes hence they are usually done by big fund companies which uses computers to monitor all these changes.

However if you happen to get lucky and come accross all the conditions, why not give it a try? It's really a risk free profit due to market inefficiency...if you don't make the profit, someones else will =)

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Business & Marketing Logics.....Just for Laughs

*This was taken from an email that was sent to me by a friend




BUSINESS LOGICS

Father: I want you to marry a girl of my choice

Son: 'I will choose my own bride!'

Father: 'But the girl is Bill Gates's daughter.'

Son: 'Well, in that case...ok'


Next Father approaches Bill Gates.

Father: 'I have a husband for your daughter.'

Bill Gates: 'But my daughter is too young to marry!'

Father: 'But this young man is a vice-president of the World Bank.'

Bill Gates: 'Ah, in that case...ok'


Finally Father goes to see the president of the World Bank.

Father: 'I have a young man to be recommended as a vice-president.'

President: 'But I already have more vice- presidents than I need!'

Father: 'But this young man is Bill Gates's son-in-law.'

President: 'Ah, in that case...ok'

This is how business is done!!

Moral: Even If you have nothing, You can get Anything. But your attitude should be positive






What is Marketing?

You see a gorgeous girl at a party.

You go up to her and say, 'I am very rich. Marry me!'

That's Direct Marketing


You're at a party with a bunch of friends a nd see a gorgeous girl.

One of your friends goes up to her and pointing at you says, 'He's very rich. Marry him.'

That's Advertising.


You see a gorgeous girl at a party.

You go up to her and get her telephone number.

The next day you call and say, 'Hi, I'm very rich. Marry me.'

That's Telemarketing.


You're at a party and see a gorgeous girl.

You get up and straighten your tie; you walk up to her and pour her a drink.

You open the door for her, pick up her bag after she drops it, offer her a ride, and then say, 'By the way, I'm very rich 'Will you marry me?'

That's Public Relations.


You're at a party and see a gorgeous girl.

She walks up to you and says, 'You are very rich, I want to marry you.'

That's Brand Recognition.


You see a gorgeous girl at a party.

You go up to her and say, 'I'm rich. Marry me'

She gives you a nice hard slap on your face.

That's Customer Feedback

Monday, November 17, 2008

Gambling or investing?

A reader once request for some gambling tip some time ago..here it is!


I. Gambling: (i) It is zero-sum which means "positive returns to the middleman (i.e. casino) translate to negative returns to the player". For example, the return to "4-D, Small" is - 42.0 per cent. It means that in the long-run, you will average a loss of 42 per cent per wager. It also means that for every $100 that is bet, Singapore Pools keeps $42. It pays out $58 to players in winnings.

(ii) The column “How long to lose it all” tells how many hours, tickets or races it takes to lose 95 per cent of your initial capital at a normal rate of play. In the example for 4-D, Small, it is "6 tickets". It means that on average, a person will lose 95 per cent of their initial capital after playing 6 tickets.

(iii) The odds for the games assume perfect play such as knowing when to take another card in blackjack. For horse-racing, it assumes average skills.

II. Derivatives: (i) Options, futures, warrants and structured warrants are the most common derivatives.

(ii) Derivatives are contracts and not assets. Because the contracts have limited lives, they are zero sum among all market participants. At any point in time, gains equal losses among all traders, before costs. Hence the name zero-sum. After costs, the sum of all trader returns is negative. This makes derivatives less like investing and more like gambling, which is also negative-sum.

(iii) It is not possible to estimate the size of the negative returns or "How long to lose it all" for two reasons: (a) trading costs (the numerator) vary for each type of derivative and (b) margin requirements (the denominator) vary from broker to broker.

III. Investing: (i) ILPs are “investment-linked products”. These are similar to unit trusts and sold by insurance companies. Both are called "funds". ETF’s are exchange-traded funds. They differ from other funds because they trade like stocks. In Singapore, they have much lower expenses than other funds.

(ii) Investment returns assume a diversified portfolio. Returns to stocks and small stock are from US data since 1926. Small stocks are defined as having a market capitalisation (price x no. of shares) under US$200 million.

(iii) Expected returns for funds (Unit Trusts and ILPs) are only 4.2 %. It is for various reasons -- (more than just high expense ratios).


* This is taken from: http://www.askdrmoney.com/gambling_investing_odds.htm

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Update of the other blog

Updated my weekly analysis of the market on the other blog of mine

http://ThePowertoTrade.blogspot.com/

Comics 2


Got this from the Sunday Times a while ago
Done by Luojie of China Daily. ( Beijing, China)

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Arbitrage


Arbitrage is something that was introduced to me by a friend in the business faculty this year. I found the idea very intriguing as it provides an opportunity to get a risk free profit.

The idea behind this is to make use of market inefficiencies, and is usually applied in financial instruments such as bonds, stocks, derivatives, commodities , currencies etc.


A simple example would be:

Exchange rate in London are £5 = USD10 = ¥1000
and the exchange rates in Tokyo are ¥1000 = USD12 = £6

So with £5 in London, you change to ¥1000 and using this ¥1000, you go to Tokyo and change it back to £6. An instant profit of £1 !


This is 'triangle arbitrage'. Though this example is so simple that it does not occur, but it serves as in illustration of market inefficiencies where you can take the chance to make a risk free profit.


I shall give a few more actual examples that are happening in my future posts. It is good to know about this, because it is really a simple way to make a quick risk free profit. The most difficult part I feel, is to actually find such opportunities, as they are usual rare and do not last long.

Wikipedia link : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage

Friday, November 14, 2008

Interesting Financial acronym =)

Got this from the forum in www.sharejunction.com

CEO --Chief Embezzlement Officer.

CFO -- Corporate Fraud Officer.

BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

BROKER -- What my broker has made me.

STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock

STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.

CASH FLOW -- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.




Wonder who actually thought of this kind of stuff...lol

Thursday, November 13, 2008

PhillipCapital Market Watch 10-16 Nov

This is a video by Phillip securities giving their views on China

Summary :

  • China heavily dependent on exports, hence with present economy slump, its economy will be affected
  • They have lifted the credit quota of banks in China and hence encourage banks to lend more. This is a better way to boost lending than decreasing interest rates.
  • Government trying to boost internal consumption in order to grow the economy
  • This is done so by lowering the housing prices and medical care, as currently these are very high, indirectly casuing their citizens to save more and spend less

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Credit Swaps

What are credit swaps? ( This word has been mentioned quite a lot of times in this financial crisis)

Definition

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) is an insurance against a default of a bond. Where you can actually can own or not own that bond.

In short

It is something like paying an insurance premium to company A betting that company B will fall.

A scenario example will be : An investor like me pays company A $2 every year, because in the event company B fails, I will get $50. This premium drops when company B is supposedly reputable and reliable because it unlikely to fail.

However in the case of AIG ( company A) , because large reputable companies ( comapany B = Lehman Brothers etc.) fell, they had to pay these investors huge sums of money and hence was almost forced to bankruptcy.


Hope you all understand a little more about CDS now.. =)

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

General Motors and Circuit City file for bankruptcy

Just saw the news on Yahoo

General Motors and Circuit City in the US have filed for bankruptcy. Both are big companies in the US..and I do expect more to be coming, especially the non-financial companies. Its time the effect actually hit these companies.



I could see the bankruptcy of Circuit City coming as I was in the US at the start of the year for a school exchange program.
The reason I went to visit Circuit City was because a US friend of mine was buying a new laptop. When I was visiting the shop ,I was shocked. Because :
  • The 1 storey building is huge, around 1/2 a soccer field, bigger than any Singapore electronics shop
  • The number of Plasma TVs, Home theater system is really crazy, imagine the amount of power it uses
  • BUT, there was less than 10 customers in the shop, and it was at around 7-8pm, essentially many many more staff than customers
  • Customer service was really bad. We spent like 1/2 hr waiting for the sales assistant to get the laptop from the storeroom. Worst still, we had to spend a full 15min waiting at the counter before the person actually attended to us. Considering the fact that there were MANY other staff personal around the counter, but just not behind the counter
  • Things in general are more expensive than eBay,amazon and other online shops. According to my friend, US consumers are shifting towards eShopping so its inevitable such shops will have to close down soon..

What happens in the Stock Market? =)


* A fellow reader sent me this =)

I find it really true for the average person who is just out to make a quick buck from rumors and tips.

Monday, November 10, 2008

OCBC Bank Christmas Promotion


Charge at least :

$5000 - Free iPod Nano
$2000 - Free Premium Lafite Wine Set
$500 - Free Sasha's Bears


Original receipts must be presented to the redemption booths at Suntec City or Shaw House between 1 Nov 2008 – 31 Dec 2008.

More info at http://www.ocbc.com/personal-banking/promotion/xmas2008.shtm

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Shifting all Technical analysis to new web page

As I would like to separate my TA from all the other financial stuff, I have set up another web page solely dedicated to analyzing and predicting stock market movements.

The link is : http://thepowertotrade.blogspot.com/

Condominum up for rent

Hi to all, have a condominium at lakeside for rent. ( For more info click on the picture on the right )

I have decided to offering $1000 to anyone who can successfully recommend a tenant for 12months. And $2000 if the tenant stays for 2 years. =)

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Standard Chartered e$saver ( Updated 1st Dec 2008)

Deposit Balance New interest rates from 4 August 2008
Less than S$50,000 0.50% p.a.
S$50,000 to S$199,999 0.88% p.a.
S$200,000 & above 1.00% p.a.


No catch! Its a good 'normal savings account'

Advantage
  • Good interest rate!
  • No lock in period, you can withdraw the money any time you want
  • For below $50,000 its better than Maybank's Isavvy
Disadvantage
  • No bank book, everything is done online
  • Cannot draw money over the counter, but if you want they will charge $5
  • Maximum internet bank transfer of $10,000 per day. But i guess this is a lot for most people
  • For above $50,000 Maybank's Isavvy is better

More information can be found at : http://www.standardchartered.com.sg/


Promotion ( Till 31 Dec 2008 )


For more info : http://www.standardchartered.com.sg/deposits/esaver_bonus_interest/index.html

Friday, November 7, 2008

Week review of stock picks


In general, my stock picks outperformed the market by 9.53% for this week.

However, this is not truly the way I would trade, as i realized that my trading decisions do vary daily, as the charts changes. Hence I would not have held on to all the stocks for the whole week, and most probably would have taken profit at sometime in the week and stayed out out of the market, because I was uncertain.

I decided to set up another blog, www.ThePowerToTrade.blogspot.com . This is because I would like to keep the present www.ntuchartist.blogspot.com as a blog solely for good deals and financial stuff. And the other blog solely for stock picks and simulation for paper trading.

Have a good week end to all!

Idea for making a quick buck! (using the Manhattan Platinum Card)


The Standard Charted Manhattan Platinum offers quite a lot of perks such as

  1. Credit limit of up to 4X monthly salary
  2. 0% interest free purchase for up to 24mth from participating merchants
  3. Interest rate that can drop down to 12% a year compared to 24% of others
  4. Cash rebates that varies according to how much you use a month. Up to 5% for $3000 spending a month, ( capped at $300 a quarter)
We shall make use of the last perk to our advantage.

Basic idea:
We are to buy and sell something and pocket the 5%. And this 'thing' has to be very liquid and will depreciate very little in that short span.

One possible plan ( using the stock market) :
  1. Buy 6 lot of share at $1 each (which is the selling price) each=> pay $6000
  2. Immediately sell it into the buying price, which is lower, say $0.99. Hence you get back $5940.
  3. Including transaction charges ( around $70) and loss due to step 1 and 2, you would have lost $70 + ( $6000-$5940) = $130
  4. However due to the rebate of 5% of $6000, you get back $300.
  5. Hence total profit is $300-$130= $170
The problem that I foresee is whether your stock broker is willing to take the immediate payment of the stock after step one using your credit card, not sure about it.

Any comments/ideas ..feel free to email me at ntuchartist@hotmail.com

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Daily Review of stock pick

( click on picture to maximize)

Despite the drop in today's market.. the overall stock picks is still better than the market. However, I would have sold all the stocks yesterday, because I would rather not trader on a bad STI day, as it might affect all the other stocks.

Looking at the charts again, I would think
Ezra still has upside ( around 0.85 )
Ho Bee, uncertain, would not trade
IndoAgri, don't look good, will not trade
Rotary, if it trades above 0.29 tmr, can consider
SinoTechFib, a little more uspide, ( around 0.23 )


*Disclaimer : What ever appears on the blog is for your own reference only. It is not an investment/trading advice. It is always best to consult your personal financial adviser before parting with your money.