Thursday, February 11, 2010

Is the correction over?

Frankly I do not know, but I have decided to stay side lined, at least till the technical indicators get better.

However here are 2 reasons why it might not be over.

1. I was reading a trader's magazine in borders yesterday, and it says that usual technical supports will be broken before the uptrend occurs. In fact, seldom is it ever a very 'clean' support. In short, support and resistance lines are within a region and not at an exact value.

2. Here is a report I received from the Edge magazine.

Since peaking at 2,933 on Jan 11, the STI has lost 6.8% to close at 2,734 today. The big question is: Have the markets bottomed? Is the selling over? Credit Suisse analysts Sakthi Siva and Kin Nang Chik attempted to answer these questions by comparing net foreign selling in the past two weeks with what happened in previous corrections.

The duo estimated that net foreign selling in “emerging Asia” was about US$6.9 billion ($9.8 billion) in the period from Jan 19 to Feb 8. Historically, Credit Suisse says the selling associated with four prior corrections were: US$2.4 billion in April 2004, US$4.5 billion in April 2005, US$4.4 billion in October 2005 and US$14.5 billion in May 2006.

But what’s telling is the length of time of the sell-off, says Credit Suisse. In the corrections of April 2004, April 2005, October 2005 and May 2006, Credit Suisse says the “net foreign selling” usually lasts a full month but so far we’ve only had 11 days. Therefore, it appears that the selling isn’t over from past data.

So I guess it's not really time to buy in yet. This is because about 2 years plus ago, I did an analysis on past market bear length, and found out that it takes around 1.5 years to reach the bootom. And it actually applies to our market!

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